The first four weeks of the 2023 NFL season have been a freefall for the Cincinnati Bengals, who bring a 1-3 record and banged-up superstar to the desert to face the Arizona Cardinals in Week 5.
The health of Joe Burrow is the biggest catalyst for Cincinnati’s stumbles, with the standout quarterback limited due to a lingering calf injury. Burrow’s ineffectiveness under center has the Bengals’ offense in the toilet, clipping the claws of an otherwise high-octane attack.
That slow start for Cincinnati, and a 3-1 against the spread mark from Arizona, has flipped the Week 5 odds on its ear. The preseason point spread for this non-conference clash was as big as Bengals -7.5, but the line has slipped below a field goal as we head toward the weekend.
I run down the NFL odds for this AFC versus NFC showdown and give my best NFL picks for Bengals vs. Cardinals on October 8.
Bengals vs Cardinals odds
Bengals vs Cardinals predictions
With Kyler Murray still on the mend and Deandre Hopkins now in Tennessee, the Arizona Cardinals’ skill positions are lacking the star power most teams bring to the table — including their Week 5 foes, the Cincinnati Bengals.
But through four weeks, this group has become one of the most efficient and surprising offenses in the land. Arizona actually ranks ahead of passing games like Philadelphia, Detroit, and Minnesota in EPA per dropback.
A big part of that is veteran tight end Zach Ertz, who’s been a steady option for Josh Dobbs in the passing game. Ertz has caught 20 of 30 passes his way for an average of 34 receiving yards and is coming off a strong showing against San Francisco, reeling in six of 10 targets for 52 yards.
Week 4 was Ertz’s busiest day of the 2023 season so far, as he is still working his way into top form after recovering from a season-ending knee injury suffered last November. Ertz lined up 54 times and ran routes on 41 of Dobbs’ 47 dropbacks after his activity in the offense dipped the previous two outings.
The 6-foot-5 tight end is primed for another stellar showing against the Bengals, who struggle to defend the position. Cincinnati has given up the 10th most yards to the position along with three touchdowns to TEs, who are averaging almost 10.5 yards per reception against Cincy this season.
This is nothing new for Lou Anarumo’s defense, which finished 2022 with the ninth most yards allowed to TEs and an average of 10.5 yards per catch. And for what it’s worth, Ertz caught seven passes for 70 yards as a member of the Eagles the last time he took on Anarumo’s schemes back in 2020.
Ertz’s receiving yards prop of 30.5 sits short of his season average. The low end of the forecasts calls for 33 yards while the ceiling sits closer to 38 yards.
My number comes out to just shy of 36 yards for Ertz against Cincinnati, which is giving up 55 yards per game to TEs in 2023.
My best bet: Zach Ertz Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Bengals vs Cardinals same-game parlay
Zach Ertz Over 30.5 receiving yardsJoe Burrow Over 251.5 passing yardsJa’Marr Chase anytime touchdown33% boost available
+580 +773 at Caesars
Ertz is quickly becoming a favorite target of Dobbs and goes against a soft Cincy pass defense.
Most projections also call for a bigger day from Joe Burrow, and the quarterback says this is the best he’s felt since the injury. Burrow faces a Cardinals defense that ranks 30th vs. pass in EPA per dropback.
With Tee Higgins hobbled, Chase’s chances of finding pay dirt are even better and player projections list him as the most likely touchdown scorer league-wide in Week 5.
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Bengals vs Cardinals spread and Over/Under analysis
As mentioned above, the look-ahead line set this offseason had the Bengals laying -7.5 on the road in Week 5.
However, Burrow would miss the final month of training camp and the preseason with a calf injury, which he then aggravated in Week 2’s loss to Baltimore. He’s battled through the ailment the past two weeks but is clearly limited in his movement and doesn’t have the same pop on his passes.
Heading into Week 4, Cincinnati was still a touchdown favorite but the 27-3 loss to Tennessee pulled back the curtain on just how bad the Bengals are with Burrow limping around the backfield. The official Week 5 spread opened Cincinnati at -5 and quickly plummeted to as low as -2 as of Thursday morning.
However, there has been buyback on Cincy under the field goal and that is now up to -3 across the industry. According to Covers Consensus, 55% of early picks are on the Cardinals.
Arizona has won over football bettors despite a 1-3 start. The Cardinals, who were projected to be historically bad in 2023, covered in the first three games of the schedule before losing 35-16 as 14.5-point underdogs at San Francisco in Week 4.
Arizona surprisingly sits No. 9 in EPA per play and seventh in Offensive DVOA through four games, with Dobbs holding his own at QB despite being traded to the team two weeks before the start of the season.
Dobbs & Co. face a Cincinnati defense that has also slipped up to start 2023. With the offense unable to move the chains, the Cincy stop unit has logged major minutes and is getting pushed around on the ground by opposing rushing attacks. The Bengals are budging for 5.1 yards per carry and sit in the bottom third in EPA allowed per handoff and rushing success rate.
The Over/Under for this non-conference game opened at 42 points and has jumped to as high as 45 at some sportsbooks. Covers Consensus shows 46% of bets coming in on the Over.
These two offenses do sit on the slower side of pace rankings, especially the Bengals (1-3 O/U) with a one-legged Burrow under center. Don’t expect to see much no-huddle or QB movement from the Cincy playbook until Burrow is healthy. The passing game could also be down a top target in Higgins, who is listed as questionable for Week 5.
Arizona is 3-1 O/U to start the year and has been extremely efficient on offense, sitting among the Top 11 in third-down success and red-zone touchdown rate. The defense hasn’t been as sound, with the Cardinals ranking 31st in opponent success rate.
