NFL Week 2’s Sunday Night Football showdown between the Chicago Bears and Houston Texans could be a glimpse into a future Super Bowl pairing.
Houston features 2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year C.J. Stroud while Chicago holds high hopes for 2024 No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams.
I’m buying into the Williams hype to an extent as I look at the opening odds for Sunday Night Football and give my early Bears vs. Texans predictions and NFL picks for September 15.
Bears vs Texans predictions
Early spread leanBears +6.5 (-105 at bet365)
My analysis
This spread is bouncing around a touchdown, with some books opening at Houston Texans -7 and taking early Chicago Bears money to trim it down to -6.5 as of Tuesday morning. This is a field goal higher than the look-ahead spread from the summer, with the offseason odds listing Houston at just -3.5.
Sure, the Bears offense didn’t look great in Williams’ first official NFL game, but the Chicago defense picked up where it left off last season. This group was one of the strongest — and most dangerous — stop units in the second half of 2023 and played like it in the win over Tennessee.
The Bears finished Week 1 ranked No. 8 in EPA allowed per play and was notably stingy versus the pass, boasting the second lowest EPA allowed per dropback — helped along by three sacks and two interceptions.
That group is a stiff challenge for Stroud, who was a mixed bag of results in the Week 1 win over Indianapolis. He finished connecting on 75% of his pass attempts for 235 yards and two touchdowns but came oh-so-close to throwing two INTs and faced the highest rate of pressure in Week 1, leading to four sacks. This Houston offensive line has to get much better.
As for Williams and the Bears offense, there can only be improvements in Week 2. Tennessee is a sneaky-good defense in 2024 and Houston’s secondary was hit hard with home-run balls from the Colts in Week 1, giving up three passing plays of 40-plus yards. This was an issue last season as well, with the Texans allowing the most passing plays of 40-plus (15) and sitting seventh in 20-plus plays against.
All considered, the swing from the look-ahead of Houston -3.5 to -6.5 after just one week of results is much too large a reaction. I’m leaning to the underdog Bears on Sunday Night Football and would pay the -118 for +7 on the alternative spread at bet365.
Early Over/Under leanUnder 46 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
This primetime total was as high as 47 points during the offseason. Bookies went with 45.5 points as the official Week 2 opening number and we’re seeing some shops listing this as high as 46.5 now.
Chicago’s offense did see some positives running the ball in Week 1, finishing 11th in success rate. But due to an early 17-0 hole, the playbook had to go pass-heavy in the second half which made the Bears’ playcalls more predictable, finishing Week 1 with a 58.5% passing clip and the third-lowest passing success rate. I expect a better balance for the Bears’ attack in Week 2, using the run to take pressure off Williams and set him up for easier down-and-distance situations.
The Texans allowed just 104 rushing yards on 22 carries to Indianapolis, but a deeper dive sees Houston ranking 21st in EPA per handoff and 28th in success rate allowed on the ground in opening games. This was, however, the top run defense in the land in 2023, so those 2024 analytics will improve. It all adds up to short gains with the clock ticking.
Houston will take a similar approach with its ground game in Week 2, especially after rushing for 213 yards in Week 1. The Texans ran the ball at the eighth-highest rate and were Top 5 in both EPA per handoff and success rate with the run last week.
The Bears’ defense buckled against Tennessee’s run game in Week 1, but overall this group was among the better run stop units in 2023. That leans into a narrative of two solid defenses going against two run-focused offenses. It smells like an Under to me.
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Bears vs Texans live odds
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