The New York Giants host the Los Angeles Rams in NFL action this afternoon. The Rams have won five of their last six games as they try to hold on to a playoff spot. The Giants have dropped back-to-back contests after going on a tidy three-game winning streak with undrafted rookie Tommy DeVito at quarterback.
DeVito has been benched for Tyrod Taylor but oddsmakers don’t see the veteran faring much better as Week 17 odds opened with the Rams as 6-point road favorites. Here are my best free NFL picks and predictions for the Rams vs. Giants on December 31.
Rams vs Giants odds
Rams vs Giants predictions
The Los Angeles Rams are 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six contests but there are reasons to be worried about backing them in what might be a trap game. The Rams stock is as high as it’s been all year and they’re an indoor team travelling across the country to the Meadowlands in December while potentially looking ahead to next week when they have a rivalry clash against San Francisco.
That said, this matchup (at least on paper) looks ideal for the Rams who might be the healthiest team in the league at the moment with not a single starter injured.
The New York Giants have just named Tyrod Taylor their QB and he’s made 56 starts in his career while also starting two games earlier this season, having a below-average performance against Buffalo before shredding Washington’s terrible pass defense. The experienced Taylor is an upgrade from Tommy DeVito but he has a low ceiling and will struggle to make plays with few weapons and a banged-up offensive line.
The Giants do a good job of picking up big chunk plays in the passing game but their down-to-down efficiency is atrocious. They are second-last in the league in third down conversion rate (29.4%) which has led to them ranking last in first downs per game (15.2). They’ve also been pathetic in the red zone, scoring a touchdown on just 45.7% of their trips inside the 20-yard line.
They won’t be able to keep up with a Rams attack that has been on fire averaging 32.4 points per game over their last five games and scoring at least 28 points in each of those contests. Despite not generating much pressure, the Giants blitz at the second-highest rate in the league which is bad news against Rams QB Matt Stafford who excels against the blitz.
The Rams also use tons of pre-snap motion and play-action which should freeze this blitz-happy defense because of how well they’ve been running the ball. Running back Kyren Williams has rushed for more than 100 yards in five of his last six games and should gash a Giants defense that ranks 26th in the league in rush EPA.
Williams opens things up for L.A.’s aerial attack to get going and that should be enough for the Rams to pull away from a Giants team that has nothing to play for.
My best bet: Rams -5.5 (-110 at bet365)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Rams vs Giants same-game parlay
Rams -5.5Kyren Williams Over 94.5 rushing yardsKobie Turner to record a sack — Yes
+625 at bet365
The Giants have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game in the league (134.2) and are 31st in yards allowed per rush attempt (4.7). They could be even worse against the run since both starting defensive tackles Dexter Lawrence and A’Shawn Robinson and primary backup Rakeem Nunez-Roches are all listed as questionable due to injuries.
That’s bad news with the hottest running back in the league coming to town. Believe it or not, that’s Kyren Williams, who has rushed for more than 100 yards in five of his last six games and is averaging 126.5 yards per game on the ground during that span.
Rams DT Kobie Turner has been one of the best defensive rookies in the NFL and backing him to get a sack against the league’s worst offensive line pays off nicely in this parlay. The third-round selection is 26th in the league among interior linemen in pass rush grade per PFF (75.3) and he’s been even better lately. Turner has racked up 4.5 sacks in the last five games and has a pass rush grade of at least 77.0 in each of those contests.
The Giants only allowed a single sack last week but they’ve still given up a league-high 77 sacks on the year — the third-most in NFL history. They allow a ton of pressure up the middle with center John Michael Schmitz and guards Ben Bredeson and Justin Pugh all struggling pass protection.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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